* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932016 06/18/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 23 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 16 14 14 11 26 44 55 57 47 54 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 3 7 10 13 11 1 0 4 12 7 8 SHEAR DIR 77 87 97 115 138 192 199 206 196 193 193 215 234 SST (C) 25.2 24.3 23.1 22.4 21.9 21.2 20.8 20.4 18.8 16.7 13.2 12.4 10.7 POT. INT. (KT) 114 106 95 89 84 77 72 67 63 65 66 67 67 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.9 -54.1 -53.6 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 3 700-500 MB RH 70 68 65 57 52 51 44 39 40 39 37 36 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 33 35 40 37 4 -8 -34 -16 7 7 -21 48 200 MB DIV 5 10 -7 -7 -8 -11 30 31 46 27 50 46 37 700-850 TADV 1 4 4 10 18 22 31 33 -2 -61 -31 8 -28 LAND (KM) 333 269 252 336 390 621 831 950 739 384 -67 -462 -907 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.5 21.1 21.7 22.3 23.6 25.1 27.2 30.1 33.9 38.5 43.3 47.0 LONG(DEG W) 109.9 110.4 111.5 113.1 115.0 119.1 122.8 125.3 126.1 124.8 122.1 118.4 112.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 14 17 19 20 17 14 17 23 26 30 28 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 749 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 12. 12. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -5. -19. -36. -49. -59. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -5. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -17. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -12. -20. -27. -33. -43. -57. -69. -77. -86. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.9 109.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932016 INVEST 06/18/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.31 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.59 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.17 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.07 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 79.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.79 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.1 to -1.7 0.07 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.9% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932016 INVEST 06/18/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##