* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932016 06/16/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 37 34 29 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 37 34 29 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 32 29 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 16 16 15 17 19 22 21 18 10 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 2 3 2 5 3 3 3 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 43 52 58 68 72 96 98 90 94 98 19 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.1 25.1 24.3 24.3 24.2 23.5 23.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 135 131 124 114 105 106 105 98 101 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 75 76 78 75 70 61 52 48 46 45 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 5 4 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 0 17 5 10 22 31 30 36 45 45 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 46 40 24 7 11 -6 -14 0 -15 8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -8 -8 -4 0 4 4 7 9 8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 373 392 429 479 480 475 561 716 886 1106 1357 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 11 12 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 7. 4. -1. -9. -14. -17. -19. -20. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.6 107.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932016 INVEST 06/16/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.60 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.05 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.54 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.21 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.26 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 34.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.85 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.59 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 13.6% 8.3% 5.3% 0.0% 2.0% 3.3% Logistic: 1.6% 1.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 5.0% 3.2% 1.9% 0.1% 0.8% 1.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932016 INVEST 06/16/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##