* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932016 06/15/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 39 42 39 34 29 25 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 39 42 39 34 29 25 18 DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 30 29 26 23 20 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 12 7 8 16 13 14 11 11 22 39 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 2 1 -1 2 1 0 4 1 3 2 6 SHEAR DIR 48 49 56 41 38 68 83 107 140 165 198 235 235 SST (C) 29.5 28.9 28.4 28.0 27.9 27.3 26.1 24.7 24.2 23.2 22.4 22.1 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 159 153 148 143 143 137 125 111 106 96 88 85 87 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -54.3 -54.8 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 78 77 78 78 76 76 73 68 59 50 44 38 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 26 26 9 9 14 18 32 19 16 17 23 -5 200 MB DIV 59 85 67 42 30 34 -5 -10 0 19 6 29 50 700-850 TADV 0 0 -4 -3 -3 -5 -3 -2 5 10 20 33 38 LAND (KM) 479 471 482 479 491 554 579 637 762 928 1114 1326 1564 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.1 17.1 18.0 18.8 19.5 20.4 21.1 22.0 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 105.3 106.0 106.7 107.4 108.1 109.7 111.9 114.3 117.0 120.0 123.2 126.5 129.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 10 12 12 14 15 15 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 35 29 19 10 9 11 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 22. 24. 25. 25. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 14. 17. 14. 9. 4. 0. -7. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.4 105.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932016 INVEST 06/15/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.80 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.27 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.33 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.47 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.46 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 28.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.86 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.82 -0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.4 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.6% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 6.9% 7.4% 1.6% 0.7% 4.1% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 6.4% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% Consensus: 0.9% 10.6% 7.3% 0.6% 0.2% 1.4% 0.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932016 INVEST 06/15/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##