* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932016 06/15/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 24 28 33 38 39 37 32 27 21 DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 24 28 33 38 39 37 32 27 21 DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 22 23 24 23 21 18 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 9 8 8 8 12 7 11 15 22 28 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -1 0 0 2 2 2 1 3 3 1 SHEAR DIR 87 61 52 62 57 49 88 119 142 163 193 216 228 SST (C) 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.5 28.9 27.6 26.5 25.2 24.1 23.9 23.0 22.3 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 163 159 153 141 130 117 105 103 93 86 80 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.4 -53.2 -52.8 -53.5 -53.4 -53.8 -54.1 -54.7 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 9 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 79 81 80 79 77 72 70 63 60 51 46 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 8 8 8 7 7 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 49 53 49 48 19 27 28 38 28 20 21 24 200 MB DIV 56 61 45 50 78 53 35 13 -5 -20 -17 0 25 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -4 -5 -2 0 3 8 15 25 LAND (KM) 505 450 389 336 298 266 384 470 634 769 943 1084 1250 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.0 14.6 15.2 15.9 17.3 18.7 19.1 19.6 20.0 20.6 21.3 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 103.6 103.5 103.7 104.0 104.6 106.3 108.9 112.0 115.0 117.7 120.3 123.0 125.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 8 9 13 14 15 13 13 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 54 50 39 29 22 7 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. 0. 6. 14. 22. 26. 29. 31. 31. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 19. 17. 12. 7. 1. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.5 103.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932016 INVEST 06/15/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.96 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 38.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.51 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.47 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 5.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.46 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 5.1% 8.4% 0.6% 0.2% 9.5% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 7.7% 4.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 4.3% 4.4% 0.4% 0.1% 3.2% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932016 INVEST 06/15/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##