* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * XAVIER EP252018 11/06/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 25 24 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 25 24 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 24 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 29 31 33 34 36 37 50 56 64 66 69 74 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 -2 -2 0 0 -3 -7 -7 -3 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 227 224 221 218 217 217 221 225 239 242 253 261 268 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.9 26.7 27.1 27.4 27.7 25.0 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 131 129 129 126 131 131 136 139 144 118 102 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.1 -55.2 -55.4 -55.5 -55.9 -56.3 -56.1 -55.5 -54.9 -54.8 -55.0 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 6 5 4 5 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 27 27 27 28 26 27 26 26 29 39 45 44 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -48 -45 -36 -39 -41 -25 -25 7 27 36 -24 -49 -13 200 MB DIV -14 -4 1 0 24 45 35 34 20 12 11 4 0 700-850 TADV 5 3 4 4 5 2 1 -4 0 4 25 71 54 LAND (KM) 417 445 435 419 412 379 287 106 92 -104 -453 -132 -21 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 18.9 19.0 19.2 19.4 20.1 21.2 22.3 23.3 24.3 26.1 28.0 29.9 LONG(DEG W) 109.3 109.9 110.4 110.8 111.3 112.1 112.1 110.8 108.5 106.1 103.2 98.6 92.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 6 5 7 10 12 13 19 25 28 HEAT CONTENT 14 11 9 8 7 5 6 8 25 14 16 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 777 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 25. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -7. -18. -34. -50. -65. -72. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -14. -21. -30. -40. -50. -54. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.8 109.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP252018 XAVIER 11/06/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.61 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.08 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 316.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.50 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 83.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP252018 XAVIER 11/06/18 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING