* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TARA EP222018 10/17/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 25 24 24 23 25 26 28 28 28 31 33 V (KT) LAND 30 28 25 24 24 23 25 26 28 28 28 31 33 V (KT) LGEM 30 27 25 23 23 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 11 12 14 18 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 160 174 193 197 194 211 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 160 159 158 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 6 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 45 43 42 44 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 3 2 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 7 -2 4 3 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 29 5 11 7 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 3 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 20 28 36 45 62 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.0 20.1 20.3 20.4 20.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.5 105.7 105.9 106.1 106.3 106.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 32 34 35 36 37 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -9. -11. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -6. -6. -7. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. 1. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.8 105.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP222018 TARA 10/17/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.88 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.33 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.30 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.27 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 198.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.65 -2.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 51.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.18 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 20.8% 16.0% 9.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 7.2% 5.7% 3.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222018 TARA 10/17/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX