* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TARA EP222018 10/16/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 33 32 32 34 35 36 36 36 35 38 38 V (KT) LAND 40 36 33 32 32 34 35 36 36 36 35 38 38 V (KT) LGEM 40 35 32 30 29 28 28 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 13 10 7 9 12 19 19 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 0 0 0 0 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 168 172 176 185 228 190 207 213 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 159 161 162 160 156 155 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 6 5 7 5 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 52 52 52 49 46 47 50 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 33 32 8 -14 17 4 3 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 81 79 50 24 9 16 16 22 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 -1 2 0 7 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 49 39 29 24 28 61 104 113 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.2 19.4 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.5 104.7 104.9 105.1 105.3 105.9 106.4 106.5 106.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 3 3 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 23 25 27 28 32 35 35 34 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -2. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.6 104.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP222018 TARA 10/16/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.48 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.22 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.43 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.51 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 213.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.63 -3.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.31 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.65 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 24.2% 19.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.6% 2.2% 1.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 3.1% 8.6% 7.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222018 TARA 10/16/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX