* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TARA EP222018 10/16/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 60 60 61 61 59 54 49 45 43 41 40 V (KT) LAND 55 59 60 60 61 61 59 54 49 45 43 41 40 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 62 63 64 64 64 62 59 56 52 48 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 16 16 13 10 8 9 16 16 19 17 19 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -3 1 0 2 5 5 6 7 SHEAR DIR 130 143 164 164 145 208 177 199 211 225 221 222 214 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.9 30.1 29.9 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 156 159 160 163 161 157 157 157 155 155 154 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 7 6 7 8 5 7 5 8 5 7 5 7 700-500 MB RH 56 56 55 54 52 49 47 46 42 47 51 56 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 50 40 38 35 -10 2 12 18 11 35 31 80 200 MB DIV 89 84 67 74 46 11 16 0 4 11 20 19 46 700-850 TADV -4 -2 2 2 -3 0 -2 2 1 0 0 3 5 LAND (KM) 79 76 74 79 83 124 162 195 237 266 301 316 331 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.5 18.4 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.2 18.9 18.8 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 104.5 104.6 104.6 104.8 105.0 105.6 106.2 106.8 107.5 107.9 108.1 108.2 108.3 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 3 1 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 18 19 21 23 25 29 30 27 23 22 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 4. -1. -6. -10. -12. -14. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.3 104.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP222018 TARA 10/16/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 7.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 7.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.28 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.16 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.55 5.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.94 7.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 302.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.52 -3.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.84 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.77 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 3.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.6% 48.0% 36.2% 26.3% 14.7% 28.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.1% 5.2% 8.6% 5.4% 5.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.8% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 8.9% 18.4% 15.1% 10.6% 6.7% 9.7% 0.1% 0.3% DTOPS: 13.0% 5.0% 7.0% 9.0% 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222018 TARA 10/16/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX