* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TARA EP222018 10/15/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 46 45 46 45 44 42 40 39 40 40 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 46 45 46 45 44 42 40 39 40 40 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 46 48 48 48 48 47 45 44 43 41 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 18 16 14 8 8 9 13 13 16 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 -1 0 0 4 1 1 SHEAR DIR 117 127 144 169 194 168 187 181 188 221 235 247 238 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.0 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 157 157 158 162 163 161 157 157 155 154 157 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -52.8 -53.3 -52.9 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 10 7 6 7 5 7 5 7 5 7 6 700-500 MB RH 61 61 59 59 59 57 51 49 50 49 51 55 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 7 7 5 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 50 52 45 25 29 -8 2 9 21 21 34 12 200 MB DIV 65 83 77 55 61 53 -1 11 3 2 2 42 7 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 0 0 -1 1 2 7 5 6 1 3 LAND (KM) 130 130 130 134 137 147 173 199 229 271 327 327 282 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.9 18.0 18.1 18.4 18.7 19.1 19.1 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 104.4 104.5 104.6 104.7 104.7 105.1 105.8 106.3 106.9 107.6 108.5 108.5 107.8 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 0 1 3 3 3 3 5 2 1 4 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 18 19 19 20 22 23 25 25 21 21 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.6 104.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP222018 TARA 10/15/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.27 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.16 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.53 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.51 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 195.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.65 -3.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.70 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.0% 23.8% 23.3% 16.2% 10.4% 20.9% 22.4% 26.5% Logistic: 6.1% 8.9% 9.7% 6.0% 4.7% 0.8% 0.1% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 2.3% Consensus: 6.5% 11.7% 11.1% 7.4% 5.0% 7.3% 7.6% 10.1% DTOPS: 6.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222018 TARA 10/15/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX