* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYTWO EP222018 10/15/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 37 40 44 48 49 47 46 42 40 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 37 40 44 48 49 47 46 42 40 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 32 33 35 36 36 36 35 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 9 11 15 11 4 6 7 8 10 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -1 -3 -2 -1 -5 -2 -1 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 118 117 119 127 139 183 136 147 144 175 190 209 209 SST (C) 29.5 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.0 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 159 158 159 162 163 164 163 161 160 159 160 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -52.6 -53.6 -52.8 -53.4 -52.7 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 7 6 8 9 6 7 6 7 5 7 6 8 700-500 MB RH 63 63 61 61 60 58 55 51 47 46 44 46 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 8 8 8 7 7 8 7 6 6 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 64 65 62 59 60 38 33 4 14 18 41 44 35 200 MB DIV 99 95 85 97 92 58 57 25 21 18 21 19 22 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 124 142 161 161 161 187 211 241 275 339 404 405 361 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.4 17.4 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.5 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 104.2 104.5 104.7 104.7 104.7 105.1 105.4 106.0 106.8 107.8 108.7 109.0 108.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 2 1 0 1 1 2 3 5 5 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 19 20 21 21 21 21 22 22 21 20 20 19 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 343 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 3. 8. 15. 23. 28. 32. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -2. -4. -3. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 14. 18. 19. 17. 16. 12. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.5 104.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP222018 TWENTYTWO 10/15/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.89 8.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.43 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.18 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.67 5.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.74 -3.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.68 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 42% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 27.3% 24.4% 16.6% 11.0% 20.7% 28.1% 41.8% Logistic: 8.9% 23.4% 21.1% 12.6% 7.2% 2.6% 0.4% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 10.5% Consensus: 7.0% 17.3% 15.3% 9.8% 6.1% 7.8% 9.7% 18.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222018 TWENTYTWO 10/15/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX