* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYTWO EP222018 10/14/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 38 42 45 48 48 45 38 32 21 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 38 42 34 38 38 35 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 37 39 33 36 36 35 29 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 11 10 10 22 35 51 66 78 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 -1 -5 -3 1 -3 0 0 -12 -13 SHEAR DIR 79 93 114 125 146 148 205 194 222 215 233 234 231 SST (C) 30.2 29.9 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.3 30.3 30.9 30.7 30.4 30.9 30.7 30.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 162 156 154 153 155 166 170 171 169 173 174 174 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -52.9 -53.4 -52.8 -53.4 -53.3 -54.0 -54.6 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 11 9 7 10 6 7 4 6 2 2 0 700-500 MB RH 71 67 66 62 59 56 52 48 46 48 51 58 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 47 39 59 66 70 75 53 45 29 55 34 14 15 200 MB DIV 29 62 78 76 59 40 66 35 32 17 45 41 46 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 -2 -7 7 -3 15 16 16 LAND (KM) 122 94 65 53 31 10 -13 36 156 135 -16 -325 -734 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.2 17.6 17.9 18.3 18.9 19.5 20.1 21.1 22.8 25.1 28.2 31.1 LONG(DEG W) 102.6 103.1 103.3 103.6 103.8 104.3 104.9 105.9 107.0 107.8 108.0 106.6 103.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 4 4 5 7 8 10 14 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 25 21 18 17 15 18 26 41 43 25 23 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 408 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -1. 3. 8. 15. 23. 28. 32. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -6. -16. -25. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 15. 18. 18. 15. 8. 2. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.9 102.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP222018 TWENTYTWO 10/14/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.90 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.49 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.17 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.50 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.76 -3.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.80 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 38% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 23.6% 22.6% 15.7% 10.0% 19.4% 22.3% 38.5% Logistic: 2.7% 15.6% 10.6% 5.0% 2.2% 4.9% 1.4% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 23.8% Consensus: 4.4% 13.5% 11.2% 6.9% 4.1% 8.1% 8.0% 21.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222018 TWENTYTWO 10/14/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX