* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/12/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 35 27 24 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 36 36 30 29 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 40 36 30 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 35 39 41 45 52 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 4 14 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 245 239 237 245 261 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.7 24.7 28.8 29.3 29.7 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 114 157 162 166 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.4 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 4 6 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 40 44 47 50 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 19 17 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 42 50 44 18 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 12 26 27 11 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 15 0 -3 15 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 187 -20 0 -223 -469 -879 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.4 26.8 28.2 29.7 31.1 34.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.7 113.0 111.3 109.3 107.3 102.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 21 22 23 23 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 17 19 19 2 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 19 CX,CY: 13/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -7. -18. -33. -51. -65. -74. -74. -75. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 19. 19. 19. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 13. 11. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -10. -12. -13. -13. -15. -18. -19. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -8. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -18. -21. -22. -29. -41. -52. -59. -65. -66. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 25.4 114.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/12/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.55 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.09 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.29 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 239.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.60 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 71.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.81 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/12/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX