* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/11/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 46 42 36 32 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 46 42 33 30 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 46 42 33 32 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 25 37 43 44 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 1 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 225 217 227 239 236 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.8 23.8 24.6 25.9 29.1 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 104 112 126 160 166 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 3 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 41 38 41 45 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 25 22 19 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 53 46 44 47 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 51 34 11 28 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 -5 12 13 1 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 573 368 151 -52 -33 -490 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.8 24.2 25.6 27.0 28.3 30.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.5 116.0 114.4 112.7 110.9 106.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 20 20 21 22 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 4 19 21 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 18 CX,CY: 14/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -16. -27. -38. -48. -54. -55. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -4. -7. -19. -19. -23. -27. -28. -29. -28. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -8. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -14. -18. -33. -40. -52. -63. -70. -74. -74. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 22.8 117.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/11/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.35 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.03 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.80 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 324.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.49 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.44 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/11/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX