* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/11/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 50 44 39 27 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 53 50 44 35 30 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 53 50 45 39 29 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 18 26 38 42 44 53 57 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 8 2 0 0 12 0 9 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 249 226 219 230 242 234 253 264 258 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.0 23.6 23.6 24.4 24.6 29.4 29.8 28.2 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 102 102 110 113 163 168 152 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.2 -0.1 -0.5 -0.1 -0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 4 3 6 3 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 40 40 38 41 47 54 54 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 29 26 24 14 12 17 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 84 60 45 46 48 -12 -15 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 46 49 22 15 3 17 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 -4 -6 16 12 -9 56 99 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 813 609 403 183 -22 -204 -721 -653 -675 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.8 24.1 25.5 26.9 29.5 32.0 34.1 36.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.4 117.9 116.4 114.8 113.2 109.4 104.7 99.1 92.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 19 20 20 21 22 25 26 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 2 20 19 2 2 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 51/ 15 CX,CY: 12/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -17. -30. -50. -61. -69. -70. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 16. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 11. 12. 12. 10. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. -3. -13. -15. -13. -18. -19. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -11. -16. -28. -34. -37. -54. -62. -67. -66. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 21.5 119.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/11/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.15 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.94 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 391.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.41 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 47.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.24 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.80 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/11/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX