* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/11/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 50 46 41 31 17 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 53 50 46 41 30 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 53 51 47 42 32 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 17 21 30 38 43 46 49 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 6 1 -1 5 8 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 237 220 223 235 236 238 262 258 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.7 23.6 24.0 24.2 23.6 28.4 29.1 28.3 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 101 106 108 102 153 160 152 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.5 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 3 3 4 5 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 43 41 39 38 44 52 52 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 28 27 26 19 7 16 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 69 89 63 52 55 16 -19 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 44 66 41 15 19 26 43 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 -1 -6 -2 15 6 21 55 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 994 800 606 390 176 -22 -504 -746 -634 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.7 22.9 24.3 25.7 28.5 31.2 33.3 35.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.8 119.4 118.0 116.5 115.0 111.3 106.9 101.7 96.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 18 19 20 20 23 24 25 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 19 20 2 2 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 13 CX,CY: 10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -15. -26. -42. -52. -59. -59. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 11. 10. 9. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -6. -17. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -14. -24. -38. -36. -43. -49. -52. -51. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.5 120.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/11/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.11 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.94 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 395.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.41 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.22 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.72 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/11/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX