* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/11/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 53 51 47 36 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 54 53 51 47 34 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 54 51 47 43 30 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 18 16 24 33 41 44 52 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 8 5 1 4 13 0 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 247 232 216 213 222 237 229 254 265 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 24.7 23.5 24.1 24.2 25.8 28.6 29.7 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 113 100 107 108 125 155 167 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 3 3 6 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 46 44 41 40 41 47 53 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 29 29 28 24 11 12 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 60 79 89 64 53 52 -16 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 53 63 59 41 20 24 29 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 4 0 -7 0 19 -8 38 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1153 960 768 551 336 -46 -314 -801 -558 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.8 22.0 23.4 24.7 27.5 30.5 32.4 33.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.0 120.7 119.3 117.8 116.2 112.9 109.1 104.0 98.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 17 19 20 20 22 23 24 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 3 19 14 2 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 12 CX,CY: 10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -12. -23. -38. -47. -53. -53. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 10. 9. 8. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -15. -18. -15. -16. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -8. -19. -34. -41. -44. -50. -54. -53. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.6 122.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/11/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.15 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.94 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 370.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 49.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.21 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/11/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX