* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/10/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 51 48 44 36 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 53 51 48 44 36 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 52 49 45 41 32 25 25 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 10 19 20 25 36 41 47 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 4 7 4 0 7 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 302 234 236 228 222 235 237 249 267 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 24.6 24.7 23.5 24.1 24.0 28.4 29.3 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 111 112 100 106 106 152 162 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.6 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.6 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 2 3 4 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 50 47 46 42 38 41 46 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 28 29 28 26 19 9 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 47 57 75 82 50 42 28 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 41 44 59 73 34 13 5 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 4 10 12 -5 25 -2 19 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1305 1134 965 768 573 180 15 -432 -717 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.7 20.7 22.0 23.2 25.6 28.1 30.4 32.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.1 121.9 120.6 119.2 117.9 114.9 111.4 107.1 102.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 17 18 18 19 21 22 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 22 3 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 11 CX,CY: 10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -9. -18. -30. -37. -42. -42. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 9. 9. 10. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 9. 8. 8. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -9. -22. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -11. -19. -29. -44. -40. -44. -47. -46. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.7 123.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/10/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.20 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.19 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.94 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 358.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.38 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.79 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.8% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/10/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX