* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/10/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 52 48 47 40 31 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 54 52 48 47 40 31 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 52 49 46 42 34 25 22 25 26 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 13 19 18 29 36 43 50 61 82 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 3 4 7 2 5 9 5 8 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 313 274 236 224 236 232 233 235 253 262 253 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 25.0 24.6 24.4 23.6 23.7 24.5 29.4 29.9 28.1 28.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 114 111 109 101 102 111 163 168 150 148 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -51.6 -51.5 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.2 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 6 3 2 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 52 52 48 48 43 42 46 49 49 54 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 31 30 28 30 29 25 14 13 18 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 46 48 56 65 61 47 42 4 -4 -18 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 70 56 48 40 64 48 29 3 27 23 15 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 0 0 11 15 1 3 -12 32 45 -33 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1418 1272 1124 944 766 382 8 -169 -652 -681 -628 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.8 19.5 20.6 21.7 24.2 26.5 29.0 31.4 33.6 35.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.0 122.8 121.6 120.3 119.0 116.2 113.0 109.3 105.1 100.3 95.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 15 16 17 18 19 21 22 23 22 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 16 2 2 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 11 CX,CY: 10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -7. -14. -25. -38. -55. -55. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 10. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. -3. -16. -21. -15. -22. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -7. -8. -15. -24. -39. -44. -43. -62. -61. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.1 124.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/10/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.26 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.31 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.47 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.94 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 338.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.48 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.66 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.5% 17.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 5.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/10/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX