* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/10/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 60 58 54 48 38 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 60 60 58 54 48 38 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 60 59 57 54 50 40 31 23 24 26 26 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 8 8 15 19 28 33 42 43 54 75 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 14 4 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 298 297 272 233 232 234 238 247 250 263 257 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 27.1 25.8 24.5 24.7 23.6 24.9 28.8 29.7 29.9 28.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 135 123 110 112 101 115 156 166 168 149 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.6 -52.1 -51.3 -51.5 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 2 3 4 5 6 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 54 54 53 49 45 42 44 46 47 49 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 30 32 32 31 32 29 21 8 15 21 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 42 52 51 47 82 41 40 49 33 19 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 64 62 57 46 60 30 21 31 55 20 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 3 1 -3 9 7 15 2 12 22 30 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1559 1441 1317 1152 988 620 240 32 -295 -757 -659 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.0 18.5 19.4 20.3 22.6 25.0 27.3 29.5 31.7 33.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.2 124.2 123.1 121.8 120.6 117.9 115.0 111.8 108.1 104.0 99.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 13 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 21 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 16 22 11 2 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -12. -21. -31. -45. -46. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 9. 10. 9. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 2. -2. -10. -29. -21. -14. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -2. -6. -12. -22. -33. -52. -46. -47. -46. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.4 125.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/10/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.27 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.96 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 370.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.65 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.75 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.4% 22.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.3% 7.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/10/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX