* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/10/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 55 53 50 43 35 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 57 55 53 50 43 35 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 60 56 53 49 46 38 31 23 19 24 26 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 4 9 14 22 32 41 43 50 58 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 7 4 4 6 3 0 9 2 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 306 300 295 260 237 239 235 243 245 254 250 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 26.5 27.6 25.3 24.4 23.5 23.6 24.3 29.3 29.8 29.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 129 141 117 108 100 101 109 160 166 164 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.9 -52.5 -52.2 -51.4 -51.7 -51.3 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.2 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 5 5 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 56 53 52 51 46 42 42 45 44 43 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 32 32 32 32 32 31 26 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 60 60 61 61 62 64 48 52 42 49 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 63 78 63 39 34 46 32 22 41 30 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 1 -1 -1 11 1 9 -18 19 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1639 1529 1421 1291 1160 815 399 22 -59 -427 -787 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.8 18.3 19.0 19.6 21.6 24.2 26.5 28.4 30.2 32.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.1 125.2 124.3 123.2 122.1 119.5 116.5 113.4 110.2 107.0 103.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 14 17 19 18 17 17 16 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 20 22 12 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 8 CX,CY: 7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -9. -18. -27. -37. -38. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -6. -20. -36. -37. -36. -35. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -10. -17. -25. -34. -48. -65. -69. -68. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.2 126.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/10/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.28 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.96 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 366.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.4% 18.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 6.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/10/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX