* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/09/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 55 53 52 51 45 38 35 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 55 53 52 51 45 38 35 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 60 55 51 47 44 36 30 23 20 22 25 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 6 12 3 5 20 25 34 41 45 48 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 4 10 11 5 6 3 0 10 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 340 360 299 245 235 230 231 230 245 249 265 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 25.9 26.3 27.7 25.5 24.6 23.7 24.9 28.7 29.6 29.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 122 127 142 120 111 102 115 155 165 166 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.3 -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -51.2 -51.1 -51.2 -51.3 -51.7 -51.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.6 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 5 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 55 55 53 53 50 44 40 43 46 47 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 36 36 36 34 34 33 23 9 16 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 50 57 50 54 59 74 41 34 42 27 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 45 50 49 52 50 40 49 19 37 28 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 5 4 4 8 2 7 1 12 31 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1745 1654 1564 1434 1304 970 606 240 39 -315 -794 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.1 17.5 18.2 18.8 20.6 22.7 25.0 27.4 29.8 32.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.0 126.2 125.4 124.3 123.2 120.6 117.8 115.0 111.8 108.1 103.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 12 14 16 17 18 19 21 21 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 17 22 12 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 7 CX,CY: 6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -5. -11. -19. -28. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -13. -33. -23. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -7. -8. -9. -15. -22. -25. -37. -58. -50. -50. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.7 127.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/09/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.30 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.96 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 358.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.76 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 6.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/09/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX