* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/09/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 68 67 67 65 59 51 43 36 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 68 67 67 65 59 51 43 36 26 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 70 67 64 61 57 49 41 33 25 21 25 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 11 24 30 35 46 50 56 72 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 9 6 10 13 9 6 1 3 4 4 8 0 SHEAR DIR 344 97 335 318 346 221 233 236 237 236 254 260 245 SST (C) 26.9 26.4 25.9 26.5 27.6 24.4 23.4 23.6 24.4 29.2 29.6 28.1 16.2 POT. INT. (KT) 131 127 122 129 141 109 99 101 110 160 166 152 67 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.4 -51.4 -51.8 -51.7 -50.8 -51.2 -50.6 -50.8 -50.8 -50.5 -50.2 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 5 4 2 0 700-500 MB RH 54 57 54 53 53 51 48 42 39 41 48 57 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 35 36 36 36 34 34 32 28 17 12 18 19 850 MB ENV VOR 57 70 62 63 55 55 69 56 41 60 19 10 58 200 MB DIV 38 49 43 5 21 62 62 33 27 29 5 30 34 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 4 6 2 10 4 4 -26 41 81 -30 LAND (KM) 1821 1740 1660 1544 1429 1145 776 403 44 -92 -555 -828 -931 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.7 18.2 19.7 21.9 24.1 26.3 28.7 31.5 34.7 38.1 LONG(DEG W) 127.7 127.1 126.4 125.4 124.3 122.0 119.3 116.4 113.4 110.1 106.5 101.2 94.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 9 11 12 15 17 18 18 20 24 29 31 HEAT CONTENT 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 21 21 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -11. -11. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -1. -6. -13. -22. -28. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -9. -25. -32. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -5. -11. -19. -26. -34. -51. -61. -53. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 16.4 127.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/09/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.21 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.34 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 421.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.2% 20.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 7.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/09/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX