* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/09/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 77 77 78 73 67 59 50 34 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 76 77 77 78 73 67 59 50 36 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 75 74 73 71 68 61 53 42 32 25 25 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 2 4 3 10 14 29 37 45 52 56 68 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 10 8 11 9 12 4 1 0 2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 25 351 100 352 316 293 230 230 231 239 242 259 252 SST (C) 27.2 26.9 26.5 25.8 26.6 26.5 25.2 23.1 23.6 28.6 29.5 28.4 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 128 121 130 130 117 96 102 155 165 154 152 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.2 -51.3 -51.7 -51.3 -51.1 -50.8 -50.8 -51.1 -51.2 -50.8 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.2 0.6 0.9 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 2 3 4 5 2 0 700-500 MB RH 57 53 57 55 53 53 51 46 40 42 49 55 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 36 35 36 38 36 35 34 31 23 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 61 79 66 62 44 57 72 39 42 36 17 35 200 MB DIV 43 35 43 30 -5 58 81 39 28 26 26 34 51 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 6 9 14 6 6 0 2 62 64 LAND (KM) 1882 1813 1744 1650 1556 1311 987 624 222 29 -438 -816 -839 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.2 17.6 18.8 20.6 22.7 25.2 27.9 30.7 33.7 37.0 LONG(DEG W) 128.2 127.7 127.1 126.2 125.4 123.3 120.8 118.0 115.0 111.4 107.3 102.3 96.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 8 9 10 13 16 18 20 22 25 27 28 HEAT CONTENT 9 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 27 21 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -4. -9. -13. -16. -16. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -4. -10. -18. -26. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 4. 2. 1. 0. -4. -15. -36. -35. -34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. -2. -8. -16. -25. -41. -66. -68. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 16.1 128.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/09/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.17 1.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.88 6.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.01 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.33 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.76 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 440.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.35 -1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.40 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.0% 26.6% 19.6% 16.5% 11.7% 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 3.4% 1.7% 1.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.1% 10.0% 7.1% 5.8% 3.9% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/09/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX