* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/09/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 74 72 71 67 63 57 50 38 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 73 74 72 71 67 63 57 50 38 29 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 75 73 71 69 66 60 52 42 33 24 22 25 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 7 9 7 10 14 26 27 38 47 50 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 6 7 9 12 13 3 8 0 6 0 6 SHEAR DIR 94 21 18 341 319 314 273 247 230 244 236 254 256 SST (C) 27.5 27.2 26.8 26.4 25.8 27.9 25.0 23.5 22.4 23.4 29.0 29.8 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 130 127 121 144 115 100 89 100 159 168 150 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.1 -51.2 -50.5 -51.2 -51.1 -51.3 -51.3 -51.1 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 5 3 1 700-500 MB RH 60 57 53 56 55 52 54 48 41 40 47 50 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 36 39 38 38 37 38 36 34 28 18 13 23 850 MB ENV VOR 75 76 67 80 65 52 42 55 59 43 59 11 24 200 MB DIV 55 53 16 14 22 43 53 39 48 31 10 19 18 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -2 5 10 10 -8 18 -19 70 34 LAND (KM) 1928 1870 1812 1733 1653 1443 1145 800 420 0 -174 -691 -780 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.2 16.5 16.9 17.2 18.2 19.7 21.7 24.1 26.7 29.3 32.0 34.9 LONG(DEG W) 128.5 128.1 127.7 127.0 126.3 124.5 122.0 119.4 116.7 113.5 109.6 105.1 100.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 8 9 12 15 16 19 20 23 24 25 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 23 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -3. -8. -13. -16. -17. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -15. -22. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -10. -25. -31. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. -3. -4. -8. -12. -18. -25. -37. -55. -63. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.8 128.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/09/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.18 1.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.70 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.03 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.34 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.76 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 426.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.37 -1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.45 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.2% 20.6% 14.8% 13.1% 8.9% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.2% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 7.6% 5.2% 4.5% 3.0% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/09/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX