* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/08/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 74 75 77 74 71 63 59 52 41 25 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 74 75 77 74 71 63 59 52 41 28 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 75 73 72 70 68 61 53 44 34 26 21 25 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 4 9 10 14 11 21 29 37 48 48 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 6 6 7 6 11 7 4 4 -1 5 8 SHEAR DIR 47 145 50 348 327 317 298 245 235 233 237 242 259 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.1 26.8 26.3 27.3 25.5 24.5 22.8 22.6 28.7 29.1 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 133 130 126 137 120 110 93 92 156 160 153 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -50.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.2 -51.1 -51.0 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -51.3 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 3 4 5 2 700-500 MB RH 57 59 55 54 53 51 51 49 45 39 45 50 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 36 36 39 38 39 37 36 34 31 23 10 19 850 MB ENV VOR 73 76 78 79 85 62 50 51 69 43 67 26 -9 200 MB DIV 40 83 62 44 22 9 37 54 37 59 28 29 39 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 5 10 16 3 10 -3 34 26 LAND (KM) 1952 1909 1866 1794 1721 1510 1234 902 537 126 -58 -526 -896 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.9 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.9 19.3 21.2 23.4 26.0 28.9 31.7 34.3 LONG(DEG W) 128.5 128.3 128.1 127.5 126.9 125.1 122.8 120.3 117.6 114.6 111.2 107.2 102.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 7 8 11 14 16 18 20 21 22 22 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 8 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 21 22 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -12. -16. -17. -17. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -7. -14. -20. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 3. 2. 3. 1. 1. -2. -7. -18. -35. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 2. -1. -4. -12. -16. -23. -34. -50. -70. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.5 128.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/08/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.19 1.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.68 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.05 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.44 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.76 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 438.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.35 -1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.5% 25.3% 17.8% 15.1% 10.8% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 9.0% 6.2% 5.2% 3.6% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/08/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX