* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/08/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 81 80 82 81 73 66 62 55 48 31 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 81 80 82 81 73 66 62 55 48 35 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 80 80 79 78 75 67 59 49 38 29 22 24 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 9 2 12 13 16 18 26 29 42 46 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 9 8 8 10 11 2 8 0 15 6 SHEAR DIR 67 38 41 337 332 320 300 261 248 228 232 234 244 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.4 27.1 26.7 25.8 27.5 25.1 23.0 22.5 28.2 28.7 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 135 133 129 121 140 116 95 91 150 156 158 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.4 -51.1 -51.4 -51.4 -51.0 -51.3 -50.4 -50.9 -50.9 -50.4 -50.5 -49.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.4 0.9 -0.1 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 3 2 3 2 6 2 700-500 MB RH 56 57 56 55 54 52 50 49 49 44 45 53 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 38 37 38 39 39 38 38 35 34 25 13 17 850 MB ENV VOR 78 80 77 77 78 68 52 37 59 42 59 92 55 200 MB DIV 22 61 56 10 8 6 37 52 39 71 33 43 65 700-850 TADV 0 2 0 0 1 1 9 15 10 -2 7 2 59 LAND (KM) 1977 1948 1920 1859 1797 1607 1373 1067 716 295 4 -382 -867 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.6 15.9 16.3 16.6 17.5 18.7 20.3 22.3 24.9 27.9 31.1 34.6 LONG(DEG W) 128.5 128.5 128.5 128.0 127.6 126.0 124.1 121.6 118.9 115.8 112.6 108.9 104.7 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 6 7 10 13 15 17 20 22 24 24 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 11 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 11 21 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. -9. -14. -19. -21. -22. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -6. -11. -17. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 1. 1. -2. -4. -17. -32. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. 2. 1. -7. -14. -18. -25. -32. -49. -70. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 15.2 128.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/08/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.16 1.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.68 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.34 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.69 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 469.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.31 -1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.42 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.8% 23.1% 16.7% 14.5% 10.4% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 3.0% 1.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 8.9% 6.0% 5.1% 3.5% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/08/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX