* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/08/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 81 82 82 77 70 67 65 57 44 25 DIS V (KT) LAND 80 79 81 82 82 77 70 67 65 57 40 31 DIS V (KT) LGEM 80 79 78 78 76 70 62 54 44 34 26 23 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 8 8 7 15 18 15 22 30 40 54 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 3 7 6 4 11 7 1 6 -5 8 SHEAR DIR 71 70 41 69 28 332 318 293 248 235 233 230 229 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.5 26.9 26.0 27.5 26.1 24.8 23.0 23.4 28.3 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 139 137 131 123 140 126 113 96 100 151 149 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -51.1 -50.8 -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 -50.9 -50.8 -51.0 -51.1 -50.1 -49.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 59 57 57 57 55 52 52 51 51 48 43 52 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 38 39 39 39 39 38 38 37 35 31 21 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 83 78 84 81 84 72 57 38 42 60 42 83 55 200 MB DIV 37 35 77 67 16 13 23 40 62 34 43 34 50 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -1 1 0 7 14 19 1 20 -19 15 LAND (KM) 1965 1958 1952 1898 1843 1682 1486 1208 886 468 -5 -200 -547 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.3 15.5 16.0 16.4 17.2 18.1 19.6 21.4 23.9 27.0 30.3 33.3 LONG(DEG W) 128.1 128.3 128.5 128.3 128.0 126.7 125.0 122.8 120.3 117.2 113.9 110.6 107.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 5 6 8 11 13 17 20 22 20 19 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 14 12 8 1 1 0 0 0 0 9 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -13. -17. -21. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -9. -17. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 3. 0. -6. -19. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 1. 2. 2. -3. -10. -13. -15. -23. -36. -55. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 15.0 128.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/08/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.20 1.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.59 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.10 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.69 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 438.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.35 -1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.1% 23.1% 15.9% 13.7% 9.9% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 2.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 8.4% 5.5% 4.7% 3.3% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/08/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX