* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/08/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 77 77 76 75 74 71 68 65 56 46 30 DIS V (KT) LAND 80 77 77 76 75 74 71 68 65 56 46 30 DIS V (KT) LGEM 80 77 75 73 72 68 62 56 47 37 29 21 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 12 7 6 7 9 17 17 23 27 36 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 3 6 9 10 8 11 2 5 4 12 SHEAR DIR 53 54 36 38 58 322 319 312 273 247 244 235 237 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.4 26.4 25.9 27.5 25.3 23.8 22.7 23.2 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 140 139 136 126 122 140 118 102 92 97 153 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.3 -50.9 -51.3 -50.4 -51.0 -50.6 -50.5 -50.0 -49.7 -49.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 6 700-500 MB RH 60 58 55 57 57 54 53 49 48 45 40 37 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 39 37 41 40 38 39 40 40 39 35 33 25 11 850 MB ENV VOR 89 86 77 81 83 76 73 45 36 56 58 63 93 200 MB DIV 52 40 13 17 5 26 43 19 48 36 16 23 18 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 5 15 11 1 0 -16 5 LAND (KM) 1960 1964 1969 1933 1897 1766 1583 1349 1066 742 374 1 -66 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.9 17.8 18.9 20.4 22.3 24.7 27.0 29.0 LONG(DEG W) 127.8 128.2 128.5 128.4 128.3 127.5 126.0 124.0 121.7 119.3 116.8 114.0 111.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 4 5 7 10 12 14 15 17 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 11 13 13 14 12 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -4. -8. -12. -16. -20. -23. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -5. -9. -19. -37. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -24. -34. -50. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 14.8 127.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/08/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.21 1.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.55 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.10 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.31 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.69 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 434.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.36 -1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 19.6% 12.6% 11.3% 8.2% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 7.0% 4.3% 3.8% 2.8% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/08/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX