* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/07/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 81 79 79 79 80 75 72 70 64 56 40 21 V (KT) LAND 85 81 79 79 79 80 75 72 70 64 56 40 24 V (KT) LGEM 85 80 77 75 74 71 66 60 53 44 35 26 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 14 11 8 7 11 16 12 18 21 28 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 4 7 8 7 14 9 6 8 13 SHEAR DIR 74 51 42 39 55 349 327 316 315 256 247 232 238 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.2 26.1 27.5 26.3 25.2 23.5 22.8 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 141 141 140 134 124 139 127 116 99 93 138 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.1 -51.5 -51.5 -51.0 -51.3 -51.0 -50.9 -50.8 -50.3 -49.9 -49.8 -49.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 61 59 58 57 56 54 52 49 47 42 36 33 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 39 40 39 41 40 42 41 41 40 38 35 28 17 850 MB ENV VOR 102 90 87 79 83 83 80 70 56 56 79 60 74 200 MB DIV 67 69 28 -14 -5 0 46 34 39 23 8 0 23 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 0 1 2 10 9 11 -2 -13 -5 LAND (KM) 1936 1961 1980 1962 1945 1859 1698 1486 1239 954 645 268 -23 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.2 15.5 16.2 17.1 18.1 19.4 21.0 22.9 25.2 27.6 LONG(DEG W) 127.3 127.8 128.2 128.3 128.4 128.0 126.8 125.0 123.0 120.8 118.6 115.8 112.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 3 3 4 6 8 11 12 14 16 17 19 HEAT CONTENT 8 11 12 13 14 10 1 1 0 0 0 0 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -10. -15. -19. -23. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. -3. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -2. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 1. 2. 1. 2. 0. -2. -6. -16. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -10. -13. -15. -21. -29. -45. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 14.6 127.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/07/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.18 0.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.46 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.09 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.33 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 454.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.33 -0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 16.8% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 5.9% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/07/18 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX