* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/07/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 85 82 82 83 83 78 71 71 67 57 49 39 V (KT) LAND 90 85 82 82 83 83 78 71 71 67 57 49 36 V (KT) LGEM 90 85 82 80 79 76 70 62 56 47 38 31 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 19 13 10 8 11 16 16 14 26 30 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -1 2 3 9 6 7 7 5 11 5 SHEAR DIR 72 60 50 62 57 8 335 336 311 270 253 232 243 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.6 26.3 26.6 26.8 25.2 23.5 22.8 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 142 142 142 138 125 130 133 117 100 93 129 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.9 -51.7 -50.6 -51.1 -50.8 -51.3 -50.6 -51.2 -50.6 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 61 62 60 58 58 58 61 57 55 53 51 48 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 39 42 40 41 42 42 41 38 39 39 36 33 29 850 MB ENV VOR 97 99 86 77 72 66 52 54 38 44 48 42 39 200 MB DIV 65 95 21 -29 -33 26 15 30 19 40 -4 29 -14 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 1 11 9 15 -13 1 LAND (KM) 1884 1915 1946 1944 1941 1853 1722 1539 1291 991 623 253 -42 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.6 14.7 15.0 15.2 16.0 16.8 17.8 19.1 20.8 23.0 25.3 27.7 LONG(DEG W) 126.6 127.1 127.5 127.8 128.0 127.7 126.8 125.4 123.4 121.1 118.4 115.7 113.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 3 3 5 7 10 13 15 17 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 6 8 10 12 14 10 2 0 1 0 0 0 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -7. -13. -18. -23. -27. -31. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. -1. -3. -6. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. 0. 0. -5. -8. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -8. -7. -7. -12. -19. -19. -23. -33. -41. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 14.5 126.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/07/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.13 0.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.24 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.08 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.30 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 465.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.32 -0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 12.1% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 4.3% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/07/18 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX