* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/07/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 96 93 91 90 90 88 81 81 77 70 62 49 V (KT) LAND 100 96 93 91 90 90 88 81 81 77 70 62 45 V (KT) LGEM 100 96 93 91 90 87 81 73 66 57 48 39 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 16 17 14 8 9 13 14 15 18 25 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 0 -1 1 6 7 10 6 8 9 9 9 SHEAR DIR 76 61 59 59 54 24 337 322 314 286 240 237 239 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.4 27.5 27.0 28.3 26.3 25.1 23.9 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 149 151 150 145 137 134 148 128 116 105 104 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.8 -51.0 -51.0 -51.1 -51.1 -51.2 -51.1 -50.4 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 63 63 64 63 61 60 61 59 56 54 51 48 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 39 40 40 39 40 41 42 40 41 41 38 35 30 850 MB ENV VOR 94 91 88 83 76 70 68 67 54 44 45 62 58 200 MB DIV 65 58 56 15 -17 19 20 52 32 46 49 11 3 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 1 6 14 13 -3 0 LAND (KM) 1818 1856 1894 1902 1907 1862 1761 1586 1368 1098 776 405 -31 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.8 16.5 17.5 18.6 20.1 21.9 24.2 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 125.8 126.3 126.8 127.1 127.4 127.6 127.0 125.7 123.9 121.8 119.3 116.6 113.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 4 4 6 9 11 13 16 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 7 9 11 11 4 1 1 0 0 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -9. -17. -23. -28. -32. -36. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -6. -4. -1. 1. 1. -2. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. 3. 2. -2. -5. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -12. -19. -19. -23. -30. -38. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 14.5 125.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/07/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.04 0.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.25 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.06 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.36 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 447.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.34 -0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 10.3% 6.2% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 3.7% 2.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/07/18 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX