* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/07/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 103 101 97 97 94 90 84 79 76 71 63 56 V (KT) LAND 105 103 101 97 97 94 90 84 79 76 71 63 56 V (KT) LGEM 105 102 100 97 95 91 85 76 67 59 49 41 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 16 17 16 12 12 15 17 16 11 23 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 0 0 5 5 7 7 9 14 10 8 SHEAR DIR 52 59 58 50 49 41 9 324 334 307 261 249 238 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.2 27.1 27.8 27.8 26.2 24.6 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 147 149 150 148 144 134 142 143 127 112 104 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -50.2 -51.1 -50.7 -50.9 -50.5 -50.5 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 65 63 64 65 62 60 61 62 57 54 53 50 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 39 40 40 38 41 41 41 40 38 39 38 35 33 850 MB ENV VOR 84 85 90 92 85 73 69 65 62 41 42 55 45 200 MB DIV 103 61 29 33 13 0 47 39 54 25 55 19 25 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -3 -2 0 -2 1 5 7 5 5 -12 LAND (KM) 1762 1822 1883 1906 1931 1897 1824 1685 1488 1247 978 621 191 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.5 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.3 16.0 16.9 18.0 19.3 20.7 22.8 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 125.1 125.8 126.5 127.0 127.4 127.5 127.3 126.4 124.9 123.0 120.8 118.1 115.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 3 3 5 8 10 12 14 18 20 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 7 8 10 12 8 2 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -5. -11. -19. -26. -31. -36. -39. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -9. -6. -3. -1. 0. -2. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. -2. -5. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -8. -8. -11. -15. -21. -26. -29. -34. -42. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 14.5 125.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/07/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.27 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.06 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 433.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 3.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/07/18 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX