* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/06/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 109 109 108 106 102 96 91 87 84 75 68 61 V (KT) LAND 110 109 109 108 106 102 96 91 87 84 75 68 61 V (KT) LGEM 110 109 107 104 101 96 90 80 71 61 52 43 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 11 14 12 15 11 10 16 15 19 21 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -2 0 2 5 7 10 6 8 8 5 SHEAR DIR 57 47 67 60 53 50 2 328 318 297 281 249 230 SST (C) 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.8 28.0 27.0 27.7 27.9 26.3 24.7 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 148 146 146 149 142 132 141 144 128 113 111 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.1 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.4 -51.1 -50.8 -51.1 -50.8 -50.9 -51.1 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 65 65 65 65 65 60 60 63 61 57 56 51 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 39 41 41 40 42 41 41 41 41 38 37 35 850 MB ENV VOR 82 85 82 81 81 79 68 57 49 40 32 52 63 200 MB DIV 79 109 49 31 39 -3 45 36 48 44 27 35 16 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 -3 -2 -1 0 1 6 11 9 -3 LAND (KM) 1699 1750 1801 1830 1860 1876 1806 1681 1513 1297 1011 671 269 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.5 14.4 14.5 14.6 15.1 15.8 16.7 17.7 18.8 20.2 22.3 25.0 LONG(DEG W) 124.4 125.0 125.5 126.0 126.4 127.0 126.8 126.1 124.9 123.1 120.8 118.3 115.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 3 4 7 9 11 14 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 7 6 7 9 7 2 1 0 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -14. -23. -30. -36. -41. -44. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -8. -4. -1. 1. 2. 0. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 1. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -14. -19. -23. -26. -35. -42. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 14.6 124.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/06/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.40 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.05 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 453.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 4.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/06/18 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX