* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/06/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 110 111 112 112 106 101 97 92 90 86 78 68 V (KT) LAND 110 110 111 112 112 106 101 97 92 90 86 78 68 V (KT) LGEM 110 109 108 107 104 98 94 88 78 70 62 52 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 10 9 13 11 9 8 14 13 19 21 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -5 -3 1 8 7 9 10 7 12 8 SHEAR DIR 359 50 56 72 54 54 21 340 317 312 281 260 247 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.7 28.5 27.4 27.2 28.3 26.6 25.4 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 149 148 146 148 146 136 135 147 131 120 105 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.7 -51.4 -51.8 -51.8 -51.0 -51.3 -50.6 -51.3 -50.8 -51.3 -50.8 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 65 65 65 65 65 62 56 58 57 53 50 50 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 37 39 40 41 39 40 41 39 40 40 39 35 850 MB ENV VOR 75 78 83 86 76 74 70 69 59 64 47 63 55 200 MB DIV 57 79 55 5 18 40 42 54 54 75 59 31 18 700-850 TADV 4 0 0 0 -2 -2 -1 0 3 3 9 6 -2 LAND (KM) 1630 1695 1762 1798 1835 1864 1845 1742 1573 1377 1144 808 366 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.6 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.9 15.5 16.3 17.4 18.5 19.6 21.6 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 123.7 124.4 125.0 125.5 126.0 126.7 127.0 126.5 125.4 123.9 121.9 119.4 116.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 5 5 4 3 4 6 8 10 13 18 20 HEAT CONTENT 6 8 7 6 6 8 9 4 1 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -7. -13. -22. -30. -35. -40. -43. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -2. 1. 3. 4. 2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 6. 4. 5. 7. 6. 8. 8. 6. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. -4. -9. -13. -18. -20. -24. -32. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 14.8 123.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/06/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.49 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.05 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 471.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.3% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 1.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 4.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/06/18 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX