* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/06/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 111 112 111 113 109 102 98 94 89 84 77 68 V (KT) LAND 110 111 112 111 113 109 102 98 94 89 84 77 68 V (KT) LGEM 110 110 110 109 107 103 99 92 83 74 66 57 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 9 12 9 11 15 9 8 13 18 23 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 -3 -5 -3 0 2 9 7 8 5 8 8 SHEAR DIR 340 7 45 59 56 51 48 8 323 305 279 269 239 SST (C) 28.4 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.5 28.9 28.0 27.2 28.4 26.4 25.5 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 153 153 153 154 157 151 142 135 149 129 120 102 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.4 -51.7 -51.3 -51.2 -51.1 -50.9 -51.0 -51.1 -51.1 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 64 65 63 67 64 62 59 55 54 54 50 51 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 37 40 39 42 41 41 42 41 40 40 39 37 850 MB ENV VOR 65 73 68 82 78 83 80 79 80 75 73 77 54 200 MB DIV 74 55 47 24 11 25 24 49 53 69 48 54 14 700-850 TADV 6 3 1 0 -1 -3 -2 -2 0 2 9 14 -3 LAND (KM) 1576 1637 1699 1746 1794 1839 1830 1741 1587 1368 1114 800 435 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 14.8 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.9 15.6 16.4 17.4 18.6 19.9 21.7 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 123.2 123.8 124.4 125.0 125.5 126.4 126.9 126.6 125.6 123.9 121.8 119.4 116.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 5 3 5 9 11 13 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 6 8 10 10 10 11 11 5 1 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -11. -20. -28. -34. -39. -42. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -2. 2. 4. 5. 3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 6. 6. 5. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. 3. -1. -8. -12. -16. -21. -26. -33. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 15.0 123.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/06/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 492.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 2.3% 0.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 5.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/06/18 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 9 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX