* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/06/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 113 115 116 115 110 106 101 98 92 87 79 73 V (KT) LAND 110 113 115 116 115 110 106 101 98 92 87 79 73 V (KT) LGEM 110 111 111 110 109 106 103 97 88 78 71 62 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 7 7 12 11 16 8 4 11 16 17 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 5 -1 -3 -5 0 4 11 8 9 6 6 10 SHEAR DIR 37 52 18 68 60 61 57 21 25 313 292 276 247 SST (C) 27.8 28.2 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 28.5 27.3 28.0 27.7 26.2 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 145 152 153 154 155 156 147 136 144 142 127 107 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 -51.6 -51.1 -51.6 -50.6 -51.3 -50.6 -51.1 -50.7 -51.1 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 65 66 66 65 66 66 62 58 58 52 54 50 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 38 38 40 40 40 43 42 42 40 41 39 38 850 MB ENV VOR 49 60 71 72 78 88 90 75 83 79 70 53 74 200 MB DIV 75 80 46 21 27 15 61 47 84 50 55 39 28 700-850 TADV 4 3 1 0 0 -3 -3 -4 -1 4 2 7 0 LAND (KM) 1491 1556 1622 1680 1738 1812 1835 1782 1647 1464 1226 941 606 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.2 14.9 14.8 14.6 14.7 15.2 16.0 17.1 18.2 19.4 20.9 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 122.5 123.1 123.7 124.3 124.9 125.9 126.6 126.7 126.1 124.8 122.8 120.5 118.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 5 7 10 12 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 4 6 7 9 10 10 11 8 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. -20. -28. -34. -39. -42. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -1. 3. 6. 6. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 6. 6. 4. 5. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 5. 0. -4. -9. -12. -18. -23. -31. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 15.4 122.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/06/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.05 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.44 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 469.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.0% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.0% 4.4% 1.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.8% 7.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/06/18 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 22 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX