* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/05/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 106 108 109 111 109 103 100 97 93 89 85 80 V (KT) LAND 105 106 108 109 111 109 103 100 97 93 89 85 80 V (KT) LGEM 105 104 102 101 100 99 98 94 86 78 72 65 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 2 7 6 12 13 12 8 6 12 15 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 4 -2 -3 -4 2 5 8 7 8 7 6 SHEAR DIR 6 75 64 44 35 53 57 34 6 316 318 285 258 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.6 28.8 29.2 29.1 28.4 27.5 27.4 28.3 26.3 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 141 149 151 154 153 145 137 137 148 128 117 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.3 -51.0 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 67 66 67 63 63 65 62 57 54 52 50 46 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 36 36 37 39 41 40 41 40 39 39 39 38 850 MB ENV VOR 53 61 71 69 73 89 95 82 80 93 74 46 63 200 MB DIV 54 66 54 4 7 6 47 52 51 37 53 40 40 700-850 TADV 2 3 2 0 0 0 -2 -2 -2 2 6 7 0 LAND (KM) 1422 1475 1529 1587 1646 1749 1787 1766 1708 1561 1334 1056 756 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.7 15.5 15.4 15.2 15.0 15.4 16.1 16.8 17.8 19.0 20.6 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 122.0 122.6 123.1 123.7 124.3 125.4 126.2 126.6 126.6 125.7 123.9 121.8 119.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 6 6 4 4 4 4 9 11 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 3 4 4 5 7 9 9 7 4 0 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -18. -26. -31. -35. -38. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. 0. 3. 6. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 4. -2. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 15.8 122.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/05/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.03 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.37 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 467.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.7% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 4.0% 1.4% 1.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 6.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/05/18 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX