* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/05/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 97 97 97 98 99 97 95 94 91 87 84 79 V (KT) LAND 100 97 97 97 98 99 97 95 94 91 87 84 79 V (KT) LGEM 100 96 92 91 90 89 90 89 86 79 74 70 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 6 6 7 6 14 12 8 5 9 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 5 4 3 2 1 5 9 6 7 6 6 SHEAR DIR 328 24 48 34 36 55 46 56 27 28 319 309 285 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.9 28.5 28.8 29.0 28.7 27.5 27.0 27.5 27.7 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 138 141 148 151 152 149 137 132 138 142 127 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -51.1 -51.5 -50.6 -51.1 -50.6 -51.1 -50.5 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.7 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 69 67 68 66 63 64 63 60 53 51 47 44 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 35 39 39 41 42 43 42 42 41 41 41 39 850 MB ENV VOR 42 49 56 63 66 85 100 100 95 108 99 99 66 200 MB DIV 46 63 56 29 14 25 37 48 15 37 30 30 26 700-850 TADV 3 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 -3 -1 5 3 2 LAND (KM) 1369 1418 1467 1525 1583 1687 1779 1806 1745 1643 1490 1270 961 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 15.9 15.8 15.7 15.5 15.4 15.4 15.8 16.7 17.6 18.4 19.6 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 121.5 122.1 122.6 123.2 123.8 125.0 126.1 126.8 127.0 126.6 125.4 123.7 121.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 6 6 6 4 4 5 6 8 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 3 4 5 6 9 9 4 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -16. -22. -27. -31. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 1. 3. 6. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -13. -16. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 16.0 121.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/05/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.02 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.39 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 427.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 5.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/05/18 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX