* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/05/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 102 100 101 100 98 97 95 96 92 90 86 84 V (KT) LAND 105 102 100 101 100 98 97 95 96 92 90 86 84 V (KT) LGEM 105 100 96 93 90 87 85 83 81 75 69 66 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 7 8 9 10 14 13 13 11 7 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 1 3 3 1 4 7 8 7 7 4 SHEAR DIR 299 349 19 40 12 49 60 53 43 26 9 311 308 SST (C) 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.6 27.7 28.6 28.1 27.8 27.4 26.8 26.8 27.2 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 143 139 138 139 149 143 140 135 129 131 135 128 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 -51.5 -50.7 -50.7 -50.7 -50.8 -50.7 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 70 69 67 68 65 64 65 62 55 51 51 44 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 39 38 41 41 42 44 44 44 43 42 42 42 850 MB ENV VOR 44 38 42 55 57 64 89 106 111 111 113 117 121 200 MB DIV 60 53 49 34 0 8 29 48 40 56 59 27 28 700-850 TADV 3 2 3 2 2 0 0 -1 0 0 0 5 7 LAND (KM) 1328 1362 1399 1456 1513 1631 1706 1778 1808 1743 1596 1428 1238 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.0 16.0 15.9 15.7 15.5 15.6 15.8 16.2 17.0 18.0 19.0 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 120.8 121.4 121.9 122.5 123.1 124.4 125.4 126.4 127.3 127.3 126.4 125.2 123.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 6 4 3 3 4 5 5 6 4 2 1 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -20. -27. -33. -38. -40. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -1. 1. 4. 5. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 4. 4. 6. 8. 8. 11. 9. 9. 8. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -9. -13. -15. -19. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 15.9 120.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/05/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.02 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 413.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 3.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/05/18 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX