* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/05/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 106 105 103 102 97 94 92 93 89 86 83 81 V (KT) LAND 110 106 105 103 102 97 94 92 93 89 86 83 81 V (KT) LGEM 110 105 100 96 92 86 83 81 78 75 71 67 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 4 6 7 10 13 15 13 11 10 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 2 5 0 2 2 6 4 6 6 SHEAR DIR 281 297 299 344 13 1 53 43 39 21 17 320 307 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.5 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.1 26.6 26.7 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 142 139 137 145 145 141 137 132 127 129 132 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 -52.1 -51.3 -51.5 -50.1 -51.0 -50.5 -51.0 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 68 69 63 67 67 67 61 58 51 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 38 38 39 40 41 42 44 45 46 44 43 43 43 850 MB ENV VOR 54 52 42 45 51 53 73 86 96 89 85 93 108 200 MB DIV 85 59 31 25 12 -13 42 43 59 17 66 68 65 700-850 TADV 2 3 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 2 1 4 4 LAND (KM) 1304 1320 1338 1387 1436 1554 1666 1758 1811 1790 1711 1603 1481 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.2 16.1 15.9 15.7 15.7 15.9 16.5 17.3 18.1 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 120.2 120.8 121.3 121.9 122.5 123.8 125.0 126.1 127.0 127.4 127.2 126.6 125.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 6 6 6 6 5 3 4 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 4 2 2 3 4 6 6 3 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -4. -9. -16. -24. -31. -37. -42. -45. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 2. 4. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 7. 10. 8. 7. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -5. -7. -8. -13. -16. -18. -17. -21. -24. -27. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 15.7 120.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/05/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.02 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 395.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.41 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 3.3% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 4.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/05/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX