* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/04/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 117 113 112 107 100 94 93 89 87 84 78 74 V (KT) LAND 120 117 113 112 107 100 94 93 89 87 84 78 74 V (KT) LGEM 120 116 111 105 99 89 85 84 80 76 71 66 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 3 4 4 9 10 12 15 12 14 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 0 1 5 5 0 3 4 5 5 3 SHEAR DIR 290 267 286 304 348 357 20 46 47 37 21 1 309 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 27.9 27.6 28.0 28.3 27.9 27.7 27.4 26.9 26.5 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 147 142 138 143 146 141 139 135 130 127 126 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -51.6 -50.9 -51.0 -50.8 -50.2 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 70 71 70 69 68 66 64 62 62 58 55 49 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 38 39 37 40 38 40 43 45 45 45 45 43 42 850 MB ENV VOR 58 65 62 49 53 65 67 85 100 99 101 110 128 200 MB DIV 92 95 37 19 21 -9 23 24 57 52 58 35 49 700-850 TADV 0 -1 2 3 3 3 0 -1 -1 1 2 3 4 LAND (KM) 1302 1316 1334 1373 1413 1530 1657 1757 1842 1867 1850 1757 1627 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.0 16.1 15.9 15.6 15.6 15.7 16.1 16.6 17.5 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 119.6 120.3 120.9 121.6 122.2 123.5 124.8 126.0 127.2 128.0 128.3 128.0 127.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 6 4 2 3 4 6 7 5 4 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -21. -30. -39. -45. -51. -54. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. 2. 4. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 4. 8. 9. 9. 9. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -8. -13. -20. -26. -27. -31. -33. -36. -42. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 15.3 119.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/04/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.03 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.45 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 431.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 2.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/04/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX