* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/04/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 120 118 116 113 105 95 94 92 92 85 80 75 V (KT) LAND 120 120 118 116 113 105 95 94 92 92 85 80 75 V (KT) LGEM 120 118 115 110 104 91 83 80 79 76 73 69 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 11 10 3 4 7 11 13 18 17 12 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -1 2 5 3 0 1 2 2 1 1 SHEAR DIR 315 297 273 249 290 6 3 41 38 61 34 42 359 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.6 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.6 26.9 26.4 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 148 146 141 139 146 144 140 138 130 125 128 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -51.3 -51.1 -50.6 -51.0 -49.8 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 0.9 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 74 71 71 69 71 69 65 65 63 60 55 49 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 39 39 39 39 40 40 44 44 46 43 43 41 850 MB ENV VOR 64 62 64 58 47 51 59 69 100 108 116 119 126 200 MB DIV 104 87 72 39 29 7 -20 20 59 46 19 70 51 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 1 5 4 1 0 -1 0 1 1 4 LAND (KM) 1314 1322 1326 1342 1361 1467 1585 1706 1830 1891 1904 1850 1727 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.2 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.0 15.8 15.6 15.6 15.8 16.4 17.1 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 119.0 119.7 120.4 121.0 121.5 122.8 124.1 125.4 126.9 128.0 128.8 128.8 128.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 7 6 5 4 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 7 6 3 3 4 5 7 7 7 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -13. -21. -30. -38. -45. -50. -54. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 4. 9. 11. 14. 11. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -4. -7. -15. -25. -26. -28. -28. -35. -40. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 14.7 119.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/04/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.04 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.52 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 377.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.43 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 7.3% 2.4% 2.0% 0.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 2.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/04/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX