* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/04/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 123 123 123 122 113 102 95 94 91 88 85 82 V (KT) LAND 120 123 123 123 122 113 102 95 94 91 88 85 82 V (KT) LGEM 120 121 119 115 110 97 86 80 76 74 72 70 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 3 8 5 1 4 6 12 16 15 12 10 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 -1 -3 -2 4 6 2 1 1 2 2 1 SHEAR DIR 16 325 281 256 241 344 4 33 48 47 50 27 27 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.6 27.6 27.3 27.5 27.4 27.4 26.9 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 150 148 144 138 138 135 137 136 136 130 124 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -51.2 -50.7 -50.6 -50.6 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 71 71 69 70 66 64 61 65 64 62 58 59 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 38 37 40 41 41 41 42 45 44 44 45 44 850 MB ENV VOR 71 68 65 63 55 47 58 59 81 99 97 96 103 200 MB DIV 101 110 84 55 18 7 -29 7 48 62 43 41 62 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -3 -1 0 2 4 0 -1 -4 0 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1326 1337 1339 1343 1350 1421 1530 1642 1781 1856 1912 1904 1835 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.0 15.9 15.8 15.5 15.7 16.1 16.7 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 118.5 119.2 119.9 120.5 121.0 122.2 123.5 124.8 126.2 127.4 128.6 129.1 128.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 9 7 6 3 4 3 6 7 8 8 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -12. -21. -31. -39. -46. -51. -54. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 7. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 3. 2. -7. -18. -25. -26. -29. -32. -35. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 14.1 118.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/04/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.56 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 428.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.0% 7.1% 3.2% 2.6% 0.8% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 6.1% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.6% 3.1% 1.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 7.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/04/18 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX