* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/04/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 117 118 117 117 111 103 95 94 88 89 82 78 V (KT) LAND 115 117 118 117 117 111 103 95 94 88 89 82 78 V (KT) LGEM 115 116 114 112 108 100 90 83 78 75 72 70 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 8 3 8 5 6 6 10 17 17 15 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 -4 -5 2 8 6 3 3 0 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 10 27 299 260 206 308 29 42 49 43 43 33 28 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.5 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 152 149 148 140 138 137 136 138 137 135 130 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -51.7 -50.5 -51.4 -50.0 -50.7 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 7 8 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 70 71 69 68 71 65 61 63 65 61 60 57 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 36 38 38 41 40 41 41 44 42 45 43 43 850 MB ENV VOR 73 75 69 66 71 53 57 63 73 89 103 96 102 200 MB DIV 112 93 88 82 55 31 -8 -26 29 18 44 21 44 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -4 -3 0 3 5 2 -1 -2 -2 0 2 LAND (KM) 1343 1340 1345 1337 1333 1384 1460 1571 1706 1823 1891 1919 1912 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.1 14.7 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.2 16.0 15.6 15.5 15.8 16.2 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 118.0 118.7 119.4 120.0 120.5 121.7 122.9 124.1 125.4 126.7 128.0 128.8 129.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 7 6 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 10 8 7 4 3 3 5 7 8 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -9. -17. -26. -35. -41. -46. -48. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 4. 4. 5. 5. 10. 8. 12. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. 2. -4. -12. -20. -21. -27. -26. -33. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 13.5 118.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/04/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.08 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 377.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.43 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.8% 19.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.0% 7.5% 3.1% 2.4% 0.9% 1.8% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 8.4% 4.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.4% 10.3% 1.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/04/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX