* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/03/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 111 111 113 113 109 101 96 91 89 84 79 76 V (KT) LAND 110 111 111 113 113 109 101 96 91 89 84 79 76 V (KT) LGEM 110 111 110 108 105 97 91 84 78 72 69 66 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 13 9 3 1 0 8 9 14 10 16 15 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 9 4 4 2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 25 25 23 322 229 17 8 49 56 51 55 60 36 SST (C) 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.6 27.9 27.6 27.7 27.3 27.5 27.0 27.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 151 152 150 142 138 140 136 138 132 133 132 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -51.6 -51.5 -51.1 -50.7 -50.9 -50.1 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 72 69 70 70 71 68 62 60 60 56 55 53 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 39 38 41 41 41 42 43 42 43 43 42 42 850 MB ENV VOR 74 69 75 66 66 64 52 68 83 93 96 112 125 200 MB DIV 102 123 108 76 74 16 -19 -3 21 23 4 22 31 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -9 -6 -4 3 3 7 0 0 -3 0 1 LAND (KM) 1362 1352 1348 1360 1357 1370 1421 1516 1640 1759 1828 1912 1980 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.9 16.3 16.3 16.2 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 117.6 118.2 118.8 119.5 120.2 121.4 122.5 123.7 125.1 126.5 127.8 129.2 130.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 6 7 7 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 11 10 8 5 3 4 2 3 4 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -14. -22. -30. -36. -41. -44. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -5. -4. -1. 0. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 8. 8. 6. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 3. -1. -9. -14. -19. -21. -26. -31. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 13.0 117.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/03/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.61 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.08 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.68 4.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.29 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 308.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.51 -2.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.1% 20.3% 19.8% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 6.7% 2.5% 1.8% 0.5% 1.8% 0.9% 0.0% Bayesian: 8.6% 8.7% 4.1% 2.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.5% 11.9% 8.8% 6.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/03/18 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX