* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/03/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 112 113 112 112 107 103 99 95 92 86 79 78 V (KT) LAND 110 112 113 112 112 107 103 99 95 92 86 79 78 V (KT) LGEM 110 112 111 109 106 100 95 89 83 77 73 70 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 15 10 3 7 3 5 11 15 15 17 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 -1 -1 0 -5 6 11 8 0 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 41 30 16 4 290 111 320 47 45 56 41 46 55 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.4 27.7 27.7 27.4 27.4 26.9 26.9 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 152 151 152 147 139 140 137 137 132 132 134 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -51.1 -51.6 -50.4 -51.3 -50.2 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 79 74 70 73 73 72 65 63 60 58 53 52 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 36 38 38 38 37 40 42 41 42 42 41 42 850 MB ENV VOR 73 74 72 76 66 70 64 74 86 110 118 115 125 200 MB DIV 104 114 88 90 67 60 5 0 -8 11 -8 28 45 700-850 TADV -6 -8 -7 -11 -7 -1 4 5 3 -1 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1363 1356 1355 1355 1360 1353 1383 1469 1584 1706 1805 1904 1987 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.6 16.2 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.5 16.7 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 117.0 117.7 118.3 118.9 119.5 120.8 121.9 123.2 124.6 126.1 127.6 129.1 130.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 12 11 10 7 3 4 2 2 3 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -13. -22. -30. -36. -41. -43. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -7. -5. -2. 2. 5. 6. 7. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 9. 7. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. 2. -3. -7. -11. -15. -18. -24. -31. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 12.6 117.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/03/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.02 0.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.46 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.09 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.66 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.29 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 221.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.62 -2.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.0% 19.4% 17.3% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.1% 21.2% 6.4% 5.1% 2.0% 2.6% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.8% 11.2% 5.2% 2.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.6% 17.3% 9.7% 6.6% 0.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 25.0% 9.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/03/18 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX