* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/03/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 100 100 100 100 105 104 103 102 100 96 92 88 V (KT) LAND 100 100 100 100 100 105 104 103 102 100 96 92 88 V (KT) LGEM 100 99 98 97 96 97 99 98 96 91 86 82 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 14 15 13 7 0 2 7 7 10 12 9 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 1 -1 -2 -2 0 2 2 0 -2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 36 47 46 33 47 88 101 45 79 57 47 65 64 SST (C) 28.5 28.9 29.0 28.7 28.9 28.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.0 26.8 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 154 154 151 153 150 139 138 137 137 133 130 128 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -51.8 -51.4 -51.0 -51.0 -50.8 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 78 77 75 73 71 73 67 61 55 54 50 49 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 35 34 36 35 38 39 41 41 43 42 42 42 850 MB ENV VOR 71 75 77 69 63 64 74 75 100 108 119 123 121 200 MB DIV 125 129 101 73 67 79 62 35 -17 3 -13 3 7 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -11 -8 -6 0 2 2 5 0 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 1383 1377 1379 1379 1384 1383 1399 1468 1568 1684 1797 1896 1970 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.6 13.1 13.6 14.1 15.1 15.9 16.3 16.5 16.5 16.6 16.7 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 116.3 117.2 118.0 118.7 119.3 120.6 121.8 123.1 124.5 125.9 127.6 129.0 130.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 6 7 7 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 14 15 15 10 4 4 2 2 4 10 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -8. -15. -22. -27. -31. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -8. -5. -2. 2. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 4. 8. 9. 12. 11. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -4. -8. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 12.0 116.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/03/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.12 0.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.33 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.12 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.70 4.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 189.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.66 -2.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 19.1% 16.2% 10.8% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 15.7% 4.1% 2.9% 1.3% 2.3% 0.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.2% 4.3% 1.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.8% 13.0% 7.4% 4.8% 3.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 29.0% 20.0% 9.0% 5.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/03/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX