* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/03/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 102 103 104 102 101 96 95 94 89 87 80 80 V (KT) LAND 100 102 103 104 102 101 96 95 94 89 87 80 80 V (KT) LGEM 100 103 103 102 102 99 96 92 86 83 80 77 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 17 12 12 12 1 8 4 8 9 12 14 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 4 3 0 -3 -5 -1 4 4 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 29 34 40 41 41 252 120 6 86 58 56 44 67 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.9 29.1 28.7 28.9 28.2 27.3 27.6 27.3 27.3 27.0 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 153 155 151 153 145 135 139 136 136 132 130 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.0 -52.4 -51.7 -52.0 -51.1 -51.6 -50.9 -51.4 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 82 79 79 77 74 75 71 63 58 55 50 48 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 34 34 37 35 38 37 39 40 39 40 39 41 850 MB ENV VOR 67 73 78 78 70 68 75 72 85 107 118 114 106 200 MB DIV 131 145 146 115 100 83 89 54 3 -24 -13 -26 6 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -7 -6 -5 -2 0 2 6 3 -1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1390 1376 1369 1358 1353 1369 1374 1428 1501 1619 1747 1835 1896 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 12.1 12.6 13.2 13.7 14.7 15.6 16.1 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 115.4 116.2 117.1 117.7 118.4 119.8 121.1 122.4 123.6 125.1 126.8 128.0 128.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 8 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 14 14 15 13 7 3 4 1 3 6 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -8. -15. -22. -27. -31. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -8. -9. -7. -4. 1. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 1. 3. 2. 5. 7. 6. 8. 5. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 2. 1. -4. -5. -6. -11. -13. -20. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 11.5 115.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/03/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.12 1.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.27 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.12 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 127.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.85 5.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.74 -3.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.71 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.8% 22.6% 19.6% 13.7% 9.2% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 12.5% 3.7% 2.5% 0.7% 2.0% 1.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 7.9% 15.6% 11.6% 3.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.7% 16.9% 11.6% 6.4% 3.6% 5.5% 0.6% 0.0% DTOPS: 41.0% 44.0% 23.0% 19.0% 16.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/03/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX