* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/02/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 106 108 111 113 111 109 103 102 99 94 88 84 V (KT) LAND 100 106 108 111 113 111 109 103 102 99 94 88 84 V (KT) LGEM 100 106 109 108 106 103 103 101 97 92 86 82 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 20 16 9 10 4 4 4 8 9 12 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 3 6 5 -2 0 -2 1 0 3 3 2 SHEAR DIR 35 21 22 64 35 59 88 116 57 63 34 44 43 SST (C) 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.9 29.1 28.8 28.8 27.7 27.4 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 148 149 153 155 152 152 140 137 138 135 132 129 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -52.7 -53.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -51.1 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 82 83 80 81 78 73 75 66 58 53 49 46 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 34 34 35 37 38 39 38 40 41 41 42 42 850 MB ENV VOR 67 76 80 76 78 75 77 83 83 111 121 136 126 200 MB DIV 110 167 179 157 139 72 70 64 -18 -19 -27 -20 -7 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -7 -7 -8 -6 -1 2 2 5 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1383 1395 1398 1383 1375 1370 1386 1407 1445 1546 1681 1789 1873 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.5 11.9 12.5 13.0 14.1 15.0 15.8 16.4 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 114.6 115.5 116.4 117.1 117.8 119.1 120.5 121.8 122.9 124.4 126.1 127.6 128.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 19 15 16 15 14 15 11 5 4 2 2 3 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -7. -15. -21. -26. -31. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -9. -10. -8. -5. -1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 7. 9. 10. 9. 6. 3. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 7. 6. 10. 13. 13. 13. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 8. 11. 13. 11. 9. 3. 2. -1. -6. -12. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 11.1 114.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/02/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.12 1.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 7.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.25 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.13 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 150.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.97 7.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.79 -4.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.64 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.9% 29.4% 24.6% 17.3% 12.0% 17.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.8% 24.5% 8.8% 6.9% 1.5% 5.2% 2.9% 0.3% Bayesian: 9.2% 15.8% 13.4% 6.0% 0.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 13.7% 23.2% 15.6% 10.1% 4.7% 7.7% 1.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 53.0% 69.0% 46.0% 33.0% 25.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/02/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX