* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/02/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 91 95 96 96 96 97 98 99 96 91 85 81 V (KT) LAND 85 91 95 96 96 96 97 98 99 96 91 85 81 V (KT) LGEM 85 93 97 97 97 95 94 97 95 91 86 82 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 22 23 16 13 13 4 11 2 8 10 9 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -1 2 3 0 -3 -1 -1 0 3 3 0 SHEAR DIR 56 33 22 26 46 27 38 127 78 64 50 56 46 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.6 27.5 27.6 27.3 27.3 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 147 148 151 153 153 150 138 139 136 136 132 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.5 -52.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.1 -52.4 -51.7 -52.0 -51.1 -51.6 -50.8 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 85 83 83 81 79 75 77 74 64 57 53 50 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 33 33 33 35 37 39 40 40 39 38 39 850 MB ENV VOR 59 72 79 78 78 82 74 82 79 92 108 118 119 200 MB DIV 108 133 154 136 128 128 85 96 45 -27 -42 -13 -3 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -5 -9 -6 -5 -5 0 2 3 2 0 -3 LAND (KM) 1337 1382 1417 1408 1405 1392 1376 1381 1437 1515 1619 1717 1819 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.7 12.1 13.1 14.3 15.2 15.8 16.2 16.5 16.6 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 113.5 114.4 115.3 116.1 116.9 118.2 119.4 120.7 122.2 123.6 125.1 126.5 127.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 29 21 16 16 17 14 14 10 4 4 1 2 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 450 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -10. -14. -17. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -9. -10. -11. -8. -4. 0. 3. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 7. 9. 10. 9. 7. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 13. 13. 12. 11. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 11. 6. 0. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 10.6 113.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/02/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.25 2.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 7.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.09 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.17 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 131.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.87 6.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 53.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 -4.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.61 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.6% 28.4% 23.8% 16.9% 11.6% 17.2% 16.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.4% 34.1% 11.4% 8.9% 3.5% 5.3% 4.3% 1.9% Bayesian: 22.7% 22.3% 24.6% 12.1% 2.9% 9.6% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 19.9% 28.3% 20.0% 12.7% 6.0% 10.7% 6.8% 0.6% DTOPS: 23.0% 54.0% 38.0% 34.0% 27.0% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/02/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX